It will achieve CO2 emission reductions, environmental protection, and the sustainable socio-economic development.
Dialogue and you may Achievement
The trends of China’s economy, urbanization, and energy structure have been widely studied recently (Table 3 in Appendix C). Annual growth rate of GDP is estimated to be 5.5–7.0% in 2010–2035, 4.0–6.0% in 2035–2050, and below 3% after 2050. The urbanization level will reach 70–72% in 2035, and above 75% in 2050. Coal consumption will drop from 63.0% to less than 45%, oil from 20% to about 15%, natural gas from 5.5% to about 12%, and non-fossil energy from about 10% to about 30% by 2050. CO2 emissions will also drop from about 8.0 billion tons to about 5.0 billion tons by 2050. According to the simulation of energy-urbanization SD model, the GDP growth rate is set (the primary industry growth rate of 3–4%; the secondary industry growth rate of 5–7%; the tertiary industry growth rate of 6–8%) to achieve the urbanization rate of 75.0–80.0%. The total amount of energy consumption (Mtce) will reach – Mtce in 2035, and –1 Mtce in 2050. Non-fossil energy will be about 65% in 2050, and CO2 emissions will be about 7.07 billion tons in 2050.
Energy is not only the necessary driver for China’s urbanization but also the constraint factor in urbanization for fulfilling the mission of global CO2 emission reductions 86,87 . In order to estimate the urbanization development, energy demand and environmental status in China over 2015–2050, an integrated SD model composed of four sub-models has been developed 88 . The validity of the model has Dating-Seiten für Bart Singles been confirmed by the simulation and sensitivity analysis using the data of 1998–2015, providing strong evidence that the effective energy planning and management policies are needed for the low-carbon oriented urbanization.